主要研究 今天

A 新的研究 来自主要研究的研究人员发现，一种潜在的U.S. climate policy could lead to significant decline in the nation’s carbon 排放 while also reducing the size of the Gulf of Mexico’s dead zone by 3-4% per year.  

在研究中, 发表在美国国家科学院院刊(PNAS)上。, researchers explored how adding an extra “social cost” to fossil fuels – which are often essential to produce the fertilizer used in agriculture — could lead to a cascade of effects to numerous systems: CO2 排放 could decline by as much as 50%; however, 化肥的成本将会上升, 引导农民减少对农田的施用. This could result in less fertilizer runoff into nearby waterways that ultimately contribute to the Gulf of Mexico’s dead zone — a low-oxygen area that struggles with harmful algal blooms that threaten marine life.  

“Excessive fertilizer use creates a growing number of water quality concerns so we wanted to explore the consequences of applying a social cost to fossil fuel prices which should reduce fertilizer use and decrease the amount of runoff going into the Mississippi River Basin and on to the Gulf of Mexico, 这是美国重要的渔业.S.说:“ 山Zuidema，研究科学家 联合国大学地球系统研究中心 也是第一作者. “我们的模型显示，在这种气候政策下，美国政府将面临更大的挑战.S. carbon 排放 could significantly decline but we could also see about a 3% to 4% reduction of the Gulf of Mexico dead zone in an average year.”

在研究中, 发表在美国国家科学院院刊(PNAS)上。, 来自主要研究的研究人员, Purdue University and the University of Wisconsin-Madison used four different models that looked at various factors making up the world economy. 他们关注的是全球经济数据.S. 农业经济, agroecology and hydrology/water quality to capture the impacts of the climate change mitigation policy on agriculture and the resulting water quality co-benefits. 他们分析了一项政策，该政策将为基于化石燃料的二氧化碳分配一系列社会成本₂ 排放. 的 policy would raise energy costs and increase the price of nitrogen fertilizer production.

的 researchers then considered three different levels of social costs applied to fossil fuels and found at the highest carbon price the cost of nitrogen fertilizer could rise by roughly 90%. This could lead to upwards of a 16% decline in fertilizer application for corn production across the Mississippi River Basin and a roughly 9% decline in fertilizer loss to the environment. 玉米和大豆产量将下降约7%, 粮食价格上涨6%, 而硝酸盐的浸出会减少10%左右. Nitrates entering the environment are removed in various ways as they move through the watershed, so the decline in nitrogen leaving the watershed at the mouth of the Mississippi River was somewhat less (roughly a 9% reduction).

“实施反映其社会成本的碳价格，可以让美国政府采取更多措施.S. 履行对《澳门葡京网赌游戏》的承诺，同时显著改善水质,汤姆·赫特尔说, professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University and project principal investigator. “我们的模型显示，在这种气候政策的范围内，美国政府将面临更大的风险.S. carbon 排放 could decline by 29% to 50%, depending on the stringency of the carbon pricing. 这代表4.6% to 8% of global carbon 排放 and satisfies the range of reductions outlined in the Paris Accord.”

Researchers also considered the additional benefits of restored wetlands to mitigate nitrogen loading and improve the low oxygen levels in the Gulf of Mexico and found a targeted wetland restoration scenario approximately doubles the effect of a low to moderate social cost of carbon.

的 team hopes these findings provide important context for policy makers to consider all aspects of climate mitigation, as well as for those that want to consider alternatives for reducing contamination to the Gulf of Mexico.

合作者包括 威尔弗雷德Wollheim 还有斯蒂芬·弗罗金, both from 主要研究; Jing Liu, 卡里尼Chepeliev, 大卫•约翰逊, 乌里斯·巴尔多斯和汤姆·赫特尔, all from Purdue University; and Christopher Kucharik, 来自威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校.

这项研究的资金是由食品Nexus的创新提供的, 能源和水系统项目由国家科学基金会资助. Partial funding was provided by the New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station through the USDA National Institute of Food and 农业.

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